Readers of this column for the previous 4 weeks, or 31 years, know we don’t take a one-size-fits-all method to handicapping.
There are at all times a myriad of angles to contemplate, from accidents (is one crew decimated at a key place?) to climate to journey concerns (is it a brief week or third consecutive street recreation for one of many groups) to present type. We take a look at all of them, then attempt to decide on the one or two which might be most related to a prediction for any given recreation.
Which brings us to Sunday’s New York Jets-Minnesota Vikings recreation in London, which is able to kick off at 9:30 a.m. ET.
You may get tousled in all the contradictory stats all you need. As an example the Vikings protection leads the NFL with 17 sacks however can be final in passing yards allowed per recreation. Is {that a} operate of the crew being forward, generally by massive margins, in every recreation, or are there cracks there?
The Jets protection ranks second in passing yards, third in complete yards and fifth in factors allowed. However all of us bear in mind the 401 yards and 31 factors it gave as much as the 49ers within the opener. Is every thing really locked down?
Each quarterbacks — Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold — have been coping with knee soreness and can be examined by high cross rushes.
This recreation, then, comes all the way down to in all probability the least analytical of all the handicapping methods: the state of affairs.
The Jets are coming in off a loss with a 2-2 document and video games in opposition to the Payments and Steelers (mixed 6-2) the following two weeks. There’s warmth on head coach Robert Saleh, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and, sure, even Rodgers, to chop out the penalties, make use of the weapons, put extra factors on board and are available again throughout the pond with a W.
The Vikings are 4-0, and there’s nothing to knock, with the previous three victories coming in opposition to the 49ers and Texans at dwelling and on the Packers. The Vikings did have to carry on for a 31-29 victory at Lambeau after leaping out to a 28-0 lead.
We’ve been reminded quite a few occasions this season already that the NFL is a week-to-week league, and that each the great occasions and the dangerous occasions will finish. The Saints scored 47 and 44 factors in wins then 12 in a loss in Week 3. The Payments averaged 37 ppg in three wins then scored 10 in a loss. An 0-2 begin scared the Ravens straight.
When you could have each of these dynamics on a collision course, this seems like the way in which to go:
The choose: Jets +2.5.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6) over New York Giants
This one’s concerning the accidents, they usually’re in all places. Half of Seattle’s defensive starters are listed as questionable. However what’s going to the Giants be capable of do about it if Malik Nabers (concussion) is out and Devin Singletary (groin) additionally sits or is hobbled? Heavy street ’canine is often a spot I like for Brian Daboll and the Giants, however this units up as a possible runaway.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+2.5) over Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore has the No. 1 yardage offense within the NFL and has been nuclear in wins over the Cowboys and Payments. Cincinnati continues to be simply 1-3 after topping Carolina, so this stays a must-win for a crew that lastly has each Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins wholesome for Joe Burrow.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns
Although this one goes in opposition to the all-good-things-must-end narrative, the unfold appears a small worth to pay to get a quarterback (Jayden Daniels), who’s finishing 82.1 % of his passes, in opposition to an injury-depleted foe. Commanders are averaging 30.6 ppg to the Browns’ 16.5. There’s an awesome hole between these numbers and this line.
Buffalo Payments (-1) over HOUSTON TEXANS
Apart from Nico Collins’ breakout, the Texans’ anticipated enchancment on offense has not precisely occurred. Their one top-tier opponent to date, the Vikings, beat them 34-7. It’s back-to-back street video games for Buffalo, however Josh Allen off a blowout loss with a tiny unfold? Sure, please!
CHICAGO BEARS (-4) over Carolina Panthers
Figuring the moment jolt Andy Dalton gave the Panthers when he changed the inept Bryce Younger will begin to put on off, notably if WR Diontae Johnson (ankle) is out or compromised. Bears are 2-0 at dwelling by margins that may cowl this quantity, and Caleb Williams ought to solely get extra in tune with Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and DJ Moore.
Miami Dolphins (+1) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Dolphins are a catastrophe, however that is the kind of quantity adjustment one would anticipate if the Patriots have been additionally higher than anticipated. They’re simply as dangerous, if not worse. Not less than the Dolphins have some high-level weapons Tyler Huntley may be capable of unlock with just a little extra apply time.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3) over Indianapolis Colts
Jobs (Doug Pederson) and reputations (Trevor Lawrence) are on the road for the 0-4 Jaguars. The one vivid spot is that is solely their second dwelling recreation, and the sight of the Colts, in opposition to whom they scored 68 factors in two video games final season, may lastly awaken this moribund offense.
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Simply one other a kind of situational angles that has the potential to trigger us nice agita late Sunday afternoon: Cardinals off blowout loss, Niners off runaway win. Underdogs at +7 or extra are literally 5-1 straight up this season (although Niners over Patriots was the exception).
DENVER BRONCOS (-3) over Las Vegas Raiders
The Davante Adams commerce saga seemingly will result in him sitting out on Sunday in Denver in opposition to a crew that ranks No. 2 in yards and No. 3 in factors allowed. Bo Nix returns dwelling a brand new man after consecutive street wins.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (+3) over Inexperienced Bay Packers
Down 28-0, Jordan Love virtually produced a miracle win vs. the Vikings. Possibly he was simply getting began, however persons are sleeping on the Rams due to the absences of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Nonetheless have a suspicion that Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford can shock as dwelling ’canine as they did vs. the Niners two weeks in the past.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-2.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Let’s add it up. Dallas needs to be with out Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, gutting its protection. The Cowboys additionally rank final within the NFL in speeding yards per recreation. If that holds, Dak Prescott must take care of T.J. Watt. You don’t need to lay too many factors with a Steelers crew that has scored six touchdowns in 4 video games, however this quantity appears cheap.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
New Orleans Saints (+5.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Kansas Metropolis’s 4-0 document is just a little too magical, coming by the size of Isaiah Probably’s toenail within the opener, and with wins over the Bengals and Falcons that would have been losses. Now Rashee Rice is out, becoming a member of Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown. Derek Carr is 3-14 in his profession vs. the Chiefs. This is perhaps the perfect state of affairs he’s had, although.
Finest bets: Steelers, Payments, Broncos
Lock of the week: Steelers (Locks 2-2 in 2024)
Final week: 10-5-1 general, 1-2 Finest Bets
Thursday: Buccaneers.
